My last article went into detail about this plan and showed which of the 80 largest banks deferred a lot of loans. A high level of deferrals could mean trouble when those deferrals end. The two charts below show residential mortgage loans in forbearance deferred. I could not find a similar chart for commercial loans, probably because they only get reported quarterly. However, it is likely to be somewhat similar.
The second chart is telling. It shows most of the loans granted forbearance are still in forbearance. Since most forbearances were granted in March and April, most should be ending soon.
The amount that have required an extension is very concerning. It is by far the largest category. Loans to consumers such as home mortgages, credit cards and vehicles have benefitted from historic fiscal stimulus. As a result, consumer loan delinquencies, outside of credit cards, have not increased significantly yet.
This is detailed in the chart below. Even credit card delinquencies remain at manageable levels. Residential mortgage loans have also benefitted from rising home prices. That has provided borrowers with much more equity in their homes. More equity means they fight harder to keep the homes. It also means if the bank forecloses, the likelihood or amount of losses goes down. In a recession, it normally takes months for bad loans to become evident and longer before the peak of loan losses occurs.
Delinquencies and charge-offs will be higher this quarter but the full damage will be partially masked by the factors above. Real-time gold scrap value calculator for professionals iPhone Android Web. Calculate precious metal dimensions, weights and purity iPhone Blackberry Android.
The calm before the storm. Neils Christensen Friday September 11, Kitco News Share this article:. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc.
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It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website. Facebook Twitter Pinterest. He does not use citations or a bibliography, or even an index, but I enjoyed reading his previous books regardless. He stuck to geopolitics mainly in his previous books. This one is much different and much less interesting.
The text is dull. Friedman normally has a more concise and witty style of writing. The ideas are also dull. It's as if the Heritage Foundation wrote this one. His theory of 'cycles' were unconvincing to me. There are so It is hard for me to believe George Friedman wrote this.
There are some vague predictions towards the end that anyone paying much attention at all likely will have already considered. I consider a great fault in the book that he does not mention any history or current effects of U. It's as if his 'invented nation' that rose to empire originated from some hardworking boat people. I suppose you could say that a colony that becomes an empire that colonizes is 'invented' since there probably haven't been many empire with those origins, but he doesn't say that.
I hope George hasn't moved from his prediction mode to a propagandist mode, but this book certainly seems like that is what has happened. His claim that U. Empire was 'unintentional' and 'reluctant' is just plain ridiculous. Unintentional and reluctant to whom?? Certainly not those that relentlessly pursued it and called it anything else.
But fear not, an election will turn the tides he tells us. Perhaps he hasn't tried voting lately? Mar 17, Chase Metcalf rated it really liked it. Another great book by George Friedman that builds on his previous explorations of America's geopolitical position and trajectory. The author describes an year institutional and year socio-economic cycle of crisis and stability that define America's history. He then notes that the s will be the first time in the history of the Republic that these cycles will reach a crisis at the same time.
In the end, he remains optimistic about the ability of America to reinvent itself and thrive foll Another great book by George Friedman that builds on his previous explorations of America's geopolitical position and trajectory. In the end, he remains optimistic about the ability of America to reinvent itself and thrive following a tumultuous decade.
Though this book is not as engaging as The Next Hundred Years it clearly complements and builds on it while providing a useful perspective on the political tensions gripping America today.
Definitely worth reading for those interested in geopolitics or America's future. Some key highlights potential spoilers : - America is an invented nation giving it adaptability and flexibility - America is an empire - even if unintended - and part of the looming crisis of the s will be about coming to grips with this and adapting its institutions for managing it going forward - The technocratic institutional system built for the challenges of World War II and post-World War II society is increasingly inaccessible to the average citizen and unable to apply common-sense solutions to the challenges facing voters.
Will lead to revolt against technocracy and elites. Will create a society with greater experience and wisdom but could come at the expense of a certain amount of dynamism and creativity as the population ages. Mar 21, Cade Patterson rated it really liked it. This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers. To view it, click here. In fact, with all its nuance and consideration it might even be close. I wonder how the coronavirus would change his timeline. Could this be the crisis that jumpstarts another cycle?
Mar 08, Andrew Gibson rated it it was amazing. I was hooked on Friedman's work after "The Next Years" so there's some bias here. Coherent, original, and tight- while also imperfect, with moments of nostalgia, and pro-Americanism. The potential for correlation posing as causation which of course, remains to be seen didn't bother me. Stretching and compelling unified theory of America's history that provides a view of America's future - for the most part non-partisan.
Enjoyed the provocative takes on solving Higher Ed, the mutually benef I was hooked on Friedman's work after "The Next Years" so there's some bias here.
Enjoyed the provocative takes on solving Higher Ed, the mutually beneficial roles of "Foxes and Hedgehogs," while wished he would have gone deeper on "Commander's Intent" - there's a big idea here for leadership. Mar 16, Joel Azose rated it did not like it Shelves: dnf. The first third of the book makes you wade through a deeply White European Male-centric "recounting" of early American history, entirely devoid of primary sources, citations, or often any evidence at all for sweeping statements about demographic groups.
One question I couldn't shake was "Who is America for? Unfortunately, "Ameri DNF. Unfortunately, "America" is metonymy for White Land-owning Men. America is The Cowboy! America is The Inventor! America is The Warrior! There are fascinating stories to tell about the true America of the s and s. This book has an unintentionally narrow scope, much to its detriment. There are issues with the quality of the prose, but it's hardly worth dwelling on them.
A lot of apropos-of-nothing groaners like "America is a paradox. No great loss. Mar 03, Paul Haas rated it really liked it. Great read that provides an in depth breakdown of two major Cycles that have shaped the US over 50 and 80 years respectively.
He provides historical context before explaining what he believes to be the result of the ending of both cycles in the late s. Very interesting and thought provoking read. Aug 20, Brian Moyer rated it it was amazing. Friedman identifies two cycles in our nation's history - one institutional and one social.
He then extrapolates several predictions for the United States in the s and beyond. For example he predicts that will be a convergence of both Friedman identifies two cycles in our nation's history - one institutional and one social.
For example he predicts that will be a convergence of both cycles. That a Democrat will be president from to and will be the last president of the Reagan cycle as well as completely ineffective Think Hoover or Carter , then in we will get a new president that reforms a lot of how the government works and starts a new cycle for the next 50 years. Some of the main changes that he sees coming are a better management of the to federal agencies.
Retrieved 27 May Eine kleine Nachtmusik Categories : Venom band albums albums. For weeks, he has promised to retaliate against any North Korean aggression toward the United States.
When Mr. Tillerson spoke in Beijing last week about seeking diplomatic channels to the North , Mr. Trump also faces an Oct. He is expected to decline to recertify the agreement , which would essentially kick it to Congress to decide whether to reimpose economic sanctions against Tehran. But it is equally plausible that Mr.
Trump was merely being theatrical, using the backdrop of military officers to stir up some drama. As the president spoke, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen.Dec 19, · On October 28, someone calling themselves Q began posting a series of cryptic messages in a /pol/ thread titled “Calm Before the Storm” (assumedly in reference to that creepy Trump quote from early.